Tuesday, January 28, 2020

The Future Or Moores Law Philosophy Essay

The Future Or Moores Law Philosophy Essay Moores law is named after Gordon E. Moore, the co-founder and Chairman Emeritus of Intel Corporation. He first published what later became known as Moores Law in a 1965 Electronics Magazine article called Cramming more components onto integrated circuits. The Law states that computer manufactures will increase the number of transistors to be placed on an integrated circuit, exponentially by a factor of 2, in every 18 to 24 months. The steady growth of the Law, has held true for decades, and while scientists have had to resort to ever more creative methods to keep it going, Intel has proven that such exponential growth will last for at least for a few more years. It seems that, while Gordon Moore was arguably the first to note the exponential growth in computing power, this exponential trend has been a part of technological progress for much longer than was originally thought. According to futurist Kurzweil, Moores law of Integrated Circuits was not the first, but the fifth paradigm to forecast accelerating price-performance ratios. Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in power (per unit of time) from the mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Census, to [Newmans] relay-based [Heath] Robinson machine that cracked the Nazi [Lorenz cipher], to the CBS vacuum tube computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the transistor-based machines used in the first space launches, to the integrated-circuit-based personal computer. This is illustrated in the chart below. What is technology singularity? This idea was first proposed by the mathematician Vernor Vinge who defined Technological Singularity as a time at which the rate of accelerating change increases to a point where it becomes human surpassing.   He said computers within a decade of our current era will be more powerful than the human brain. The machines will rapidly become much smarter than the humans who initially created them. This will cause a convergence of all technologies, until humans became totally embedded and submerged into a virtual world. This singularity is a state in which humans will be components of a cybernetic social network of such complexity that no one person will be able to understand more than a tiny fraction of the whole. As much as Singularitarians rely upon Moores Law to fuel our visions of the future, its not some inescapable truth of the universe. Producing ever smaller transistors is a job for thousands of engineers around the world, spending billions of dollars in research. Each step towards increasing computer processor performance per dollar requires innovation, and those innovations take time and effort to perfect. TriGate is a great example millions of dollars and a decade of preparation for its eventual launch. If you were to chart the evolution of the computer in terms of processing power, you would see that progress has been exponential and Moores Law seems to be self- fulfilling prophecy than a mere law or observation. But will technology singularity sustain of completely wipe off Moores Law? According to Moores Law, the progress of computational power on computers seems to have an exponential growth; whilst the futurist claim that technology singularity will accelerate at rate that no human brain can comprehend, as computers will achieve human-level intelligence and will be an infusion of different technologies embedded together and the growth will not be exponential. Moores Law may continue indefinitely, but it will rely upon the creativity and resilience of many developers at the top of their game. Can they keep it up? Can we keep pushing computers to become faster, better, and more efficient so they double in performance every two years? But on the contrary to support Moores Law, Intel, commercialized the worlds first 3D transistor, known as TriGate. The 22nm transistor performs better and uses less energy than the current cutting edge 32nm transistor. Computers can already perform individual operations orders of magnitude faster than humans can, Farmer said; meanwhile, the human brain remains far superior at parallel processing, or performing multiple operations at once. For most of the past half-century, engineers made computers faster by increasing the number of transistors in their processors, but they only recently began parallelizing computer processors. To work around the fact that individual processors cant be packed with extra transistors, engineers have begun upping computing power by building multi-core processors, or systems of chips that perform calculations in parallel.This controls the heat problem, because you can slow down the clock, Denning explained. Imagine that every time the processors clock ticks, the transistors fire. So instead of trying to speed up the clock to run all these transistors at faster rates, you can keep the clock slow and have parallel activity on all the chips. He says Moores law will probably continue because the number of cores in computer processors will go on doubling every two years. According to a research team at the Georgia Institute of Technologys Microsystems Packaging Research Center, they demonstrated a new technology called system-on-package (SOP). It addresses the other90 percent of the electronic system and paves the way for mega-function systems.In contrast to Moores Law, which addresses 10 percent of system integration at the IC- or device-level only -called the First Law SOP addresses the system integration problem, leading to the Second Law of Electronics. SOP combines nanoscale ICs with newly developed micro- to nanoscale, thin-film versions of discrete and other components. It embeds both of these components in a new type of package so small that it eventually will transform handhelds into multi- or mega-function systems. SOP technology represents a radically different approach to electronic and bio-electronic systems. It shrinks bulky circuit boards with their many components and makes them nearly disappear, leading to package-sized systems hen ce the name system-on-package. In effect, SOP sets up a new law for system integration. It holds that as the components shrink from milli- to micro- to nanoscale, component density will double every few years, leading to an exponential increase in the number of system functions packaged in a device the size of todays cell phones. Whether we attain the levels and surpass singularity still remains a fierce subject of speculation among the scientist and futurists. Below are excerpts of opponents of singularity, who forecast the phasing out of Moores Law. According to Peter Denning, distinguished professor of computer science at the Naval Postgraduate School and an expert on innovation, he says that By 2030 whatever technology were using will be sufficiently small that we can fit all the computing power thats in a human brain into a physical volume the size of a brain, after all this has been said, there will be the evolution of a super intelligent machine that will surpass human understanding. The British mathematician I.J. Good hypothesized that ultra intelligent machines, once created, could design even better machines. There would then unquestionably be an intelligence explosion, and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultra intelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, Others argue that Moores law will soon start to break down, or that it has already. The argument stems from the fact that engineers cant miniaturize transistors much more than they already have, because theyre already pushing atomic limits. When there are only a few atoms in a transistor, you can no longer guarantee that a few atoms behave as theyre supposed to, Denning explained. On the atomic scale, bizarre quantum effects set in. Transistors no longer maintain a single state represented by a 1 or a 0, but instead vacillate unpredictably between the two states, rendering circuits and data storage unreliable. The other limiting factor, Denning says, is that transistors give off heat when they switch between states, and when too many transistors, regardless of their size, are crammed together onto a single silicon chip, the heat they collectively emit melts the chip. Some scientists say computing power is approaching its zenith. Already we see a slowing down of Moores law, the theoretical physicist Michio Kaku said in a Big Think lecture. He says that Computer power simply cannot maintain its rapid exponential rise using standard silicon technology.   He claims that Intel Corporation has admitted this company is now going to three-dimensional chips, chips that compute not just flatly in two dimensions but in the third dimension.   The problem is that a Pentium chip today has a layer almost down to 20 atoms across, 20 atoms across.   When that layer gets down to about 5 atoms across, its all over.   You have two basic problems are heat (the heat generated will be so intense that the chip will melt and disintegrate) and leakage.  (You dont know where the electron is anymore.) Thats the reason why the age of silicon will eventually come to a close. The quantum theory takes over. Kurzweil (1999; 2001) has proposed that technical progress can be characterized as accelerating exponential development. According to Kurzweils law of accelerating returns, technical change is generated in an evolutionary process where the outputs of the process are used as inputs in the next phase of the development. This leads to exponential growth. Kurzweil maintains that the rate of exponential growth itself increases. When a particular evolutionary process becomes more effective than its alternatives, greater resources are deployed for the further progress of the effective process. As a result, the rate of exponential growth itself grows exponentially. Evolution, and technology-evolution continued by other means-therefore is a process that leads to accelerating change. Using his observations as a basis, Kurzweil argues that technical development will rapidly lead to computational devices that are more intelligent than humans. The increasing capabilities of computers will further accelerate the speed of technological progress and, at least from our limited perspective, lead to an apparently infinite speed of change. Kurzweil calls this approaching point of extremely rapid change Singularity. Kurzweils hypothesis of approaching Singularity therefore consists of four major claims. One is the empirical claim that technical developments in computing show exponential growth and that the growth speed has increased over time. Another claim is that this process is generated by a law of accelerated returns which feeds back resources to those areas of technology development that grow rapidly. The third claim is that technology creation can be understood as an evolutionary process. The fourth claim is that the speed of change will soon reach levels where the human intelligence, at least in its current forms, perceive infinite pace of change and that this will lead to major changes in the society and in individual lives.

Monday, January 20, 2020

My Best Friend Essay -- Friendship Essay

My Best Friend Have you ever had someone in your life who helped you figure out who you were? Someone who showed you the right path. Someone who was there right next you even if you did not take that path. Someone who always seemed to be right, but never held it against you when you were not. Someone whom without your life would most likely be entirely different. I have. Her name was Jessica.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Jessica was more than my neighbor. She was more than my mentor. She was my best friend. Jessica lived three houses down from me when I moved into a new neighborhood. She made moving to a new neighborhood a lot easier. She was one of those people who was friends with everybody. She was friends with everyone because she was so special. She was always in a good mood, always had something pleasant to say, and no matter what was going on, she could get you to smile.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Jessica was a few years older than me but we were both young. I was in the fifth grade and she was in junior high when we met. She was tall for her age and practically towered over me. She almost always kept her long golden hair pulled back into a pony tail because she was a bit of a tomboy and liked to be athletic. But when she let it down and it waved in the gentle breeze, there was no doubt she was a girl. Her facial features were very soft, yet if you met her once, you would never forget her name. She also had the deepest green eyes that would sparkle so bright when she flashed her pearly white teeth, s...

Sunday, January 12, 2020

The Process Of Modelling Erosion Environmental Sciences Essay

This papers is intended as a literature reappraisal of research on how to pattern the eroding. Erosion is a natural procedure that has become a serious environmental job due to the action of several natural and human factors. For case, deforestation, fires, unequal agricultural patterns or inordinate building of edifices and roads have skyrocketed this phenomenon. Erosion causes transit of deposits to rivers, swamps and lakes, increasing the hazard of deluging when raining. Besides, eroding reduces the capacity of dirts to hive away H2O, and do the loss of foods and organic affair worsening the biodiversity of the part. The engagement of the governments is needed to set up programs to command this phenomenon. 2 Definition of Erosion The word eroding, from Latin, means gnaw off ( Ghanshyam, 2009 ) . Erosion means the remotion of stuff from one topographic point of the Earth ‘s crust to the other by the impact of geological agents ( Krebs, 2003 ) . Erosion is a phenomenon that occurs at really slow rates. For illustration, Patric ( 1976 ) references some illustrations of a general rate of 0.18 to 0.30 dozenss / acre / twelvemonth. Obviously this rate will change depending on many variables on the surface of the Earth. Areas on the Earth surface that is more immune to erosion, such as forest land can supply rates of 0.05 to 0.10 ton / acre / twelvemonth. In contrast, countries with high rates of eroding such as agricultural land may stop up giving rates of 1 to 5 dozenss / acre / twelvemonth. Erosion is a natural procedure linked to the kineticss development of the planet and is a measure within the geological rhythm of the Earth ‘s crust. The geological rhythm which includes eroding is intended to accomplish a mass balance between the highest countries of the planet and the lower countries ( Khan, 2006 ) .3 Erosion within the Geological rhythmThe Earth ‘s crust is subjected to a uninterrupted transmutation ensuing from the action of geological agents, both internal and external, which are the elements that model the Earth surface ( Ramberg, 2008 ) . The Internal geological procedures have their chief beginning in the internal heat of the planet, and they are constructive, they are responsible for the formation of the Earth surface. These geological procedures appear in signifier of slow motions ( orogenic ) or sudden events ( temblors and vents ) , which give manner to the formation of new minerals and stones. External geological procedures are caused by the action of external agents ( air, H2O, air current, snow ) .3.1 Weathering, conveyance and depositWeathering is the procedure of break and decomposition of stones by the action of external agents. Weathering occurs in the topographic point where the stones are, without being transported. When the decomposition takes topographic point in combination with conveyance so is called eroding ( Gifford, 2005 ) . Weathering may be chiefly mechanical ( physical ) or chemical, but in most occasions operate combined. The conditions will be a cardinal factor in the laterality of mechanical or chemical weathering. Mechanical weathering is the physical decomposition of stones due to events such as dilation and alterations in H2O temperature ( Gifford, 2005 ) . This instance is common in hot dry climes where the uninterrupted alterations of temperature contribute to do snap and break in the stones. In cold climes, the H2O freezes in clefts perforating moving as a cuneus, doing the break and atomization of stones. Chemical weathering is the change of the mineral components of stones by the action of atmospheric gases ( O, C dioxide ) and H2O ( Gifford, 2005 ) , which performs procedures such as hydrolysis and hydration. Transport occurs on weather-beaten stuffs, fragmented or dissolved which can be eroded and moved from their topographic point of beginning, by the action of gravitation, which will take them from high to low countries. The chief conveyance agents are H2O overflow ( watercourses, rivers ) , ice ( glaciers ) , air current and sea ( coastal countries ) ( Ghanshyam, 2009 ) . The deposition of the eroded and transported stuff ( fragments of stones, dead beings and chemicals ) consequences in their deposit when it stops the consequence of gravitation and make more stable topographic points. The zones of accretion of deposits are sedimentary basins, which may be inland ( a lake or a river vale ) and ocean, deep sea, which are the most of import. In the instance of comeuppances, deposit occurs when the consequence of air current Michigans.3.2 Wind erodingWind eroding occurs in desert parts ( dry conditions ) , where rainfall and flora are scarce, with a preponderantly mechanical weathering. Wind eroding depends on many factors: conditions forms, dirt conditions, and flora screen ( Shao, and Leslie, 1997 ) . The deposition of stuffs occurs when the air current velocity lessening, ensuing the dunes, which are accretions of sand, which besides appear in coastal countries, as seen in some beaches.3.3 Water erodingSurface H2O ( overflow ) is the chief conveyance agent of alleviation modeling in the Earth ‘s surface. The behavior of surface H2O depends on their speed, which is relative to the incline. The greater is the speed larger the eroding consequence. Therefore, a graduation of the features of surface H2O can be seen from the topographic point of beginning until deposition occurs of the stuffs transported.3.4 Ice erodingGlaciers are accretions of ice, being located in the polar caps and in cragged countries. They originate in topographic points where rainfall is in the signifier of snow, which does non run and accumulates, until it becomes compacted and hardened into ice. The erosive glaciers can be of great importance in some countries of the Earth. In some countries of the planet can go the chief agent eroded go forthing a characteristic landscape. Glacial eroding occurs when immense multitudes of ice traveling easy through gravitation. This phenomenon carries the stuff in its way that act as an scratchy, crunching and smoothing the rock bed on which it travels.3.5 Coastal erodingGeological action of sea H2O plays an of import function in coastal modeling. The eroding occurs when moving ridges impact the stone. The accrued energy of the moving ridges crashing against the drops causes its gradual dislocation. Erosion rate depends on the petrology of the seashore and the moving ridge energy. Materials are so transported by moving ridges and currents and deposited in the signifier of pebbles, crushed rock and sand at the pes of the drop. Lighter atoms are deposited on the ocean floor.3.6 Human erodingHuman activities contribute in a meaningful manner t o the eroding of the dirt, including large-scale agribusiness patterns.Factors that determine the erodingAmong the most of import factors that have a major influence on the control of the eroding is without uncertainty the clime. There are several variables which can be derived from climate, including the most of import, the rain. The kinetic energy of raindrops when they hit the land cause the decomposition of the stuffs and therefore the eroding occurs.

Saturday, January 4, 2020

The Fall Of Willy Loman Essay - 822 Words

The Fall of Willy Loman Willy Loman was a man who gradually destroyed himself with false hopes and beliefs. Throughout his entire life Willy believed that he would die a rich and successful man. It was inevitable for him to come crumbling down after years of disillusions. We can look at Willy’s life by examining some of his character traits that brought him down. Charley once said to Willy, â€Å"When the hell are you going to grow up?† Willy spent his entire life will this false illusions and comcepts, he thought that he would die a rich and famous man. When he looked at himself, he saw a great man that was successful. One may think that having a positive outlook is good for ones self-esteem, but in Willy’s case it was detrimental.†¦show more content†¦Due to the fantasy world that Willy lived in, mostly caused by the American Dream, he pursued his career in sales. Based on the success of Dave Singleman, his mentor. His bad career choice caused most of his dissatisfaction with life. His sales career simply conflicted with his natural abilities and talents. I believe that he knew he should have been working in a different field, but his obsession with the American Dream would not allow him to realize that. When Willy dreamt of working with his hands he was the happiest. â€Å"Yeah. He was a happy man with a batch of ce ment. He was so wonderful with his hands. He had all the wrong dreams All, all, wrong.† According to the idea of the America Dream, manual labor did not comply. Sadly enough, Willy measured his self worth by the standards of the American Dream. Willy was a stubborn man that was possessed by extreme pride. Charley offered him a job when he came into his office nearly begging. Charley tried explaining some points of the business world, explaining that being liked is not an issue. Willy really had no idea how the business world worked. He thought if one was liked, no problems would arise. â€Å"Why must everyone like you? Who liked J.P. Morgan? Was he impressive? In a Turkish bath he’d look like a butcher. But with his pockets on he was very well liked. Now listen, Willy, I know you don’t like me, and nobody can say I’m in love with you, butShow MoreRelatedEssay about Marxism and the Fall of Willy Loman in Death of a Salesman2986 Words   |  12 Pageslives† (146). This lasting effect on Miller is embodied in the character of Willy Loman, an unsuccessful salesman whose life collapses from the strain of his competition for wealth, demonstrated by Nilsen as she claims the fault lies in the â€Å"Im pairment of [Willy’s] conscience and sanity by intolerable economic pressures† (155). 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Willy strives to become and instill in his sons the success of the self made man that American society often advertises but ultimately falls short, and instead, escapes accepting his failure through lies and death. What many flaws Willy possesses, most do not correlate with the classic tragic hero. Willy Loman, was never really of noble stature, asRead More Willy Loman, Redefining the Tragic Hero in Arthur Millers Death of a Salesman1065 Words   |  5 PagesWilly Loman, Redefining the Tragic Hero in Arthur Millers Death of a Salesman      Ã‚  Ã‚   The events in the life of Willy Loman in Arthur Millers Death of a Salesman are no doubt tragic, yet whether or not he can be considered a tragic hero in a traditional sense is a topic requiring some discussion. Aristotle set the criteria for qualities a character must possess in order to be considered a tragic hero. 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